As I have noted in previous blog posts I have noticed a slowdown in the marketplace. While far from empirical, from my own activity level and in discussion with peers, we came to similar conclusions. Now The Denver Metro Association of Realtors (a trade organization), one of the best resources concerning statistical information and analysis concerning the Metro Denver residential real estate market has provided empirical evidence.
Of note, while I have quoted the Case/Shiller index and other sources of information, the DMAR which compiles information concerning the 11 county metro area is consistently the most accurate source of market statistics and overall information and trends concerning Metro Denver.
Some interesting statistics for review:
- Nationally the average home is on the market for 47 days and an additional 42 days to close. In the Denver Metropolitan Area the average home is on the market for 28 days with an additional 38 days to close. Of note with the new loan processing procedures, days until closing may have a moderate increase during the 4th quarter. Locally showing activity is beginning to slow: translation, seasonal adjustment and more opportunities for buyers.
- The Average and Median Single-Family Sold Price for September 2015 decreased by 2.51% to $398,591 and by 1.65% to $340,000 respectively.
- The Average and Median Condo Sold Price for September 2015 decreased by 0.78% to $253,109 and by 1.86% to $211,000 respectively.
- Concerning the overall marketplace from the month prior:
- Under Contract decreased by 10%
- Sold decreased by 7.8%
- Total Sales Volume by 9.91% to $1.76B which is still respectable volume as 12.05% higher than the same period the year prior.
- The highest price paid for a Single Family Home in September 2015 was $5.395M for a 3-bedroom, 8 bathroom, 7,990 SF home in Cherry Hills Village.
- The highest price paid for an Attached (Condo) Single Family in September 2015 was $1.8M for a 2-bedroom, 3 bathroom, 2,621 residence in the Cherry Creek North neighborhood of Denver (where yours truly resides).
Am I concerned? Not at all. First, a seasonal adjustment is to be expected. Second, many believe the market was a bit over-heated during the Spring and Summer of 2015 and third, we are moving into a more equitable market for sellers and buyers which is a good thing.
For sellers, a more balanced market may NOT translate into top dollar, however appraisal issues are not as prevalent and the gains over the past few years are still impressive and Denver continues to be one of the top performing markets in the nation only behind San Francisco over the past year.
For buyers an increase in inventory and moderation of pricing is welcoming.
My prediction as the market continues to move towards equilibrium including the potential for a modest fed fund increase during the 4h quarter of 2015 or the 1st quarter of 2016 we will return to a market where buyers and sellers transact based on value versus a monthly payment, overall a positive.