Is The Country Club Neighborhood Overheated

DSC_00791I honestly don’t know. However for a client request I decided to run some statistics. I pulled resales through the end of 2015 and compared on a per square foot price to the homes on the on the market at present.

I kept the comparison sample as close a possible as follows:

  • Houses priced/sold below $1,300,000.
  • Using only above grade measurements.
  • Avoid listings on busier streets i.e. Downing St., University Blvd., 1st and 6th Aves.
  • The Results:

The Closed Sales came in at: $446 PSF

Active on the Market at present: $481 PSF

Both on a percentage basis and actual sale price, I have some concerns. For example a 2,000 SF house based on the statistics during the 6 months from summer to today would have gone from $892,000 to $962,000. The difference in a mortgage payment is approximately $345.00/month or over $4,140/yr and .and extra $124,000 over the term of a 30-yr mortgage,

Granted, this is Closed  versus Asking, however sold prices have consistently been close to asking. My concern; will appraisals support the values beings presented during this 1st Quarter of 2016 (in general appraisals look backward not forward). Also, for those buyers purchasing at present will equity appreciation continue?

Of course we are in a low interest environment and while this morning’s unemployment rate was positive for the economy there are questions concerning slipping back into a recession based on world-wide economies.

Anyone who knows me knows I am always bullish on central Denver neighborhoods. I believe in location, location and location. However when I see 8% gains in 6 months and some justifying the gain, I become a bit more skeptical.

 

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