The most recent Case-Shiller Index for Metro Denver shows continued strength in our market which is now at #3 behind Seattle and Portland for price appreciation. Within the last year the price appreciation for Denver has been 7.9%, which is very, very healthy (nationally the increase was 5.6%). Even more interesting is the following statistic from the report: “Denver’s Case-Shiller home price index in May rose to a new record of 198.32. That means that local home resale prices averaged 98.32 percent higher than they were in the benchmark month of January 2000, based on non-seasonally-adjusted data.”
Yes as a broker I should be celebrating. However I have been curious about business and real estate cycles as I have learned over the year’s lessons from history should be respected.
Case in point a charming house on a nice corner lot in one of Central Denver’s most desirable neighborhoods recently came in the market. The house is of a desirable size with 2,000 SF above grade and a fully finished basement with 1,300 SF. In addition the home is located within a most in-demand public elementary school which is within walking distance.
I decided to do a title search to see the activity on this house as it relates to the Case-Shiller index. Fortunately I could go as far back as 1992. Here is the history based on public records, please note the information reads as follows
Transaction/Date/ Price/Gain/Loss over Prior Transaction in $/%/ From 1992/ % Int. Rate:
- Sold June 1992 – $225,000 Average 30 Yr. Mortgage Rate = 8.51%
- Sold Nov 1993 – $238,500 + $13,500 or +6% gain/ 30 Yr. = 7.16%
- Sold Aug 1999 – $480,000 + 241,500 or +101% / 113% gain from 1992/ 30 Yr. 7.94%
- Sold Oct 2003 – $690,000 + $200,000 or +43% / 206% gain from 1992/ 30 yr. 5.95%
- Sold Sep 2007 – $825,000 + $135,000 or +20%/ 260% gain from 1992 / 30 yr. 6.38%
- Foreclosed Nov 2010/ 30yr. 4.3%
- Sold Aug 2011 for $625,000 (- $200,000) or (-24%)/ 170% gain from 1992/30 yr. 4.27%
Placed on market July 2017 for $1,950,000/ 30 Yr. 3.88%
Assuming a sale for $1,900,000 + $1,275,000 or 204% Gain/ 740% gain from 2002
Thus from 1992 to 2007 which many consider the pinnacle of the last market upturn before the Great Recession, the gain over the 15 years equaled $600,000 or 73%.
In the three years from the pinnacle of the market to subsequent foreclosure in 2010 and sale the following year in 2011 the home lost $200,000 or 24% in value in 4 years. Yet from 1992 the increase still equals $400,000 or a 200%+ gain over 19 years.
If this home sells for close to asking in the 6 years of most recent ownership, looking at a $1,275,000 gain or $204% over their purchase and 700+% over the 1992 sales price.
Again I assume there have been renovations. Of note I am not factoring inflation as the $225,000 in June 1992 would equate to $393,000 in 2017.
However if one were to graph the history of this home it is unique as it shows true cycles in the market. In 1994 Denver and all of Colorado was experiencing a similar economic boom as we are enjoying at present. Granted the present expansion cycle is exacerbated coming off the Great Recession however I continue to argue fundamental business cycles have not ended.
Yes we are in a Goldilocks fiscal environment with historically low interest rates. I purposely included the average interest rates at the time of each transaction based on the 30 yr. fixed rate. Also with unemployment at record lows eventually we should see inflation tick up. During times of inflation housing generally increases in value HOWEVER when mortgage interest rates increase there is historically an inverse relationship i.e. rates go up on mortgages prices can come down concerning housing as more of the monthly is debt service.
Thus one may conclude the phenomenal increases in values may be attributable to the influx of capital and population to Denver, attractive pricing when compared to coastal cities and all coupled with cheap borrowing costs. However is this growth sustainable?
Ask me in the next 12-18 months.
Personally I would be a seller at present and only a buyer assuming a longer-term hold i.e. over 3-5 years at minimum while locking in the low-interest rates. Just my humble opinion.