Is Irrational Exuberance Giving Way to Rational Behavior

I recently enjoyed a conversation with a friend who is about to list their residence in one of Denver’s most affluent neighborhoods (of note I was NOT in the competition for the listing). He mentioned what they plan to list the home at. I asked if they were planning to use the broker whom they have a personal relationship with and they advised no as what they wish to list the home at, the broker would not take the listing feeling the asking price was overly aggressive. Another broker has since been retained to market and sell the home.

Full disclosure, the home is spectacular from a conservative design perspective including solid pre-war construction, beautiful curb appeal, and a park-like oversized lot professionally landscaped and so forth. Of course there are some minor deficiencies yet nothing insurmountable. However when I was advised of the asking price my immediate reaction based on my experience in the present market was “Good Luck”.

I personally went through a similar situation with clients in 2011. Due to a change in employment status and other factors including owning the largest home on the block purchased at an inflated 2006 price, a challenging layout  and across the alley from a primary school  the sellers and this home had multiple challenges. At the Listing Presentation with a peer broker in attendance we advised the seller the asking price should be between $710,000-$720,000. The seller requested I place the house on the market for $839,000 (their purchase price was over $800K plus interior upgrades leading to a cost-basis in excess of $840,000). As a friend first and broker second (and I have since learned my lesson) I did as requested. After one month, multiple open-houses and two formal showings the sellers agreed to lower the price. The new asking $739,000, still above what was advised the prior month. Fifty yes 50 showings later and 9 months on the market not one offer! We decided to part ways. The seller hired another broker, within one week did a price reduction and subsequently sold the residence for $715,000.

It took the seller ten(10) months to sell for $715,000 which I had advised, from day one AND at $4,000/month mortgage, do the math, $40,000 before interest deduction, not exactly the most brilliant strategy.

Thus based on the above examples and seeing signs of a slowing market and for my own edification I decided to look at market activity both present and looking back at Sold Activity over the past 6 months.

Let’s start with Country Club (the borders are from Downing St. to west-side of University Blvd, 1st Avenue to 6th Avenue).

Sales Activity over the last 6 Months Country Club Neighborhood of Denver:

  • # Of homes sold: 7
  • Avg. Finished SF: 3,510 SF
  • Avg. Total SF: 4,482 SF
  • Average Sold PSF Finished: $568.38
  • Average Sold PSF Total: $445.01
  • Average Days on Market: 24 Days

On the Market at Present:

  •  # Of homes on the market: 8
  • Avg. Finished SF: 3,186 SF
  • Avg. Total SF: 4,419 SF
  • Average Sold PSF Finished: $557.31
  • Average Sold PSF Total: $424.36
  • Average Days on Market: 68 Days and counting

Based on size the differences between the Sold’s and on market is marginal and same concerning the Price per Square Foot however what is telling is Days on Market (DOM). The Sold’s over the last 6 months on average sold in 24 days. Yet those on the market today is average 68 days and counting. The difference, over one month, almost a month and a half.

I admit one could argue the homes on the market at present may have challenges from location to upkeep however as asking prices based on a Per Square Foot basis stayed relatively the same, the issue is the longer on market time. Number of days on market has more than doubled. Yes there are seasonal factors however many pundits argue the selling season is now year round.

My personal view is market demand is softening and asking prices are yet to adjust to the new market realities.

Of note, Country Club is a small, insular neighborhood with limited inventory and limited turnover. Thus I also looked at Cherry Creek North (1st Avenue to 6th Avenue, University Blvd to Colorado Blvd) to provide a more balanced view, granted however balanced one of the metro’ area’s most affluent neighborhoods can be. However with the diverse housing stock and density, a clearer picture may emerge.

Sales Activity over the last 6 Months Cherry Creek North Neighborhood of Denver:

  •  # Of homes sold: 53
  • Avg. Finished SF: 2,396 SF
  • Avg. Total SF: 3,335 SF
  • Average Sold PSF Finished: $436.10
  • Average Sold PSF Total: $332.28
  • Average Days on Market: 53 Days

On the Market at Present:

  •  # Of homes on the market: 94
  • Avg. Finished SF: 2,393 SF
  • Avg. Total SF: 3,416 SF
  • Average Sold PSF Finished: $595.36
  • Average Sold PSF Total: $412.07
  • Average Days on Market: 95 Days and counting

Again as with Country Club based on size the differences between the Sold’s and on market is marginal and same concerning the Price per Square Foot however what is telling again is Days on Market (DOM). The Sold’s over the last 6 months on average sold in 53 days. Yet those on the market today is average 95 days and counting. As with Country Club the difference is almost a month and a half.

Conclusion: In both neighborhoods asking and closed prices have stayed somewhat status quo. However in a hot housing market the number of days on market is telling. Granted one could use the seasonal differential argument. Maybe; however in both neighborhoods we are seeing the Days of Market mirror each other i.e. almost a month and a half difference.

I may be incorrect and I admit when I am however I believe the market is definitely showing signs of slowing based on Days on Market coupled with levels of inventory. Yes the two markets are considered luxury markets yet what happens at the upper-end of the market historically trickles down to other market segments. What will be interesting is when we will begin witnessing price adjustments.

It seems the pinnacle of the market may have been 6-12 months prior and the market is now possibly taking a well-deserved breather or maybe showing signs of a changing business cycle.

Considering interest rates have remained stable; actually still close to historic lows, the stock market continues to flirt with record highs and the recent issues with N. Korea are too recent to influence the housing market.

I believe the optimists will advise it is a natural seasonal shift, me being the conservative pessimist would advise, hang tight if you can it may be a bumpy ride ahead.

 

 

 

 

 

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