The Whipsawing of the Real Estate Market, an example in Cherry Creek North

The 200 block of Harrison Street in Cherry Creek North is an interesting block and one I have some familiarity with as I resided on it for 27.5 years. The east side abuts Colorado Blvd, the west side somewhat sheltered from the traffic. Yet old-time brokers know Jackson St and Harrison St. were always more challenging due to their proximity to Colorado Blvd. Yet in recent years developers have found opportunities on these blocks for redevelopment and advantages with the higher natural topography allowing for unobstructed mountain views.

With interest I have been watching 235 Harrison St, the south side of a duplex. Constructed during the tail end of the boom in the mid 2000’s I always appreciated the contemporary design. While most of the block is of traditional design including a bungalow, the expansive glass and landscaping truly set this duplex apart.

The unit is presently on the market and seems to have been struggling to find a buyer thus I decided to look at the history (please see inflation adjusted to 2018 dollars as noted by the *):

  • The unit came on the market on 4/26/18 for $1,100,000
  • The most recent price adjustment happened on 6/8/18 down to $950,000

Thus I decided to look back at the history a little further:

4/30/08:Comes on the market as new construction for $899,000.

*In 2018 Dollars: $1,050,500

-Of note the beginning of The Great Recession is happening.

1/13/09:Sells for $750,000

*In 2018 Dollars: $879,526

-Basically 6 months later and a $149,000 price reduction from initial asking.

2/09/12: Comes onto market at $799,900

*In 2018 Dollars: $875,540

-$49,000 above last resale 3 years earlier does not sell!

After multiple iterations on the market and price adjustments:

2/24/14: The unit sells for $764,276

*In 2018 Dollars: $812,224

Thus from January 2009 to February 2014 the unit in real dollars increased $14,000 and based on inflation has lost $60,000+.

  • 4/28/18: The unit comes on the market at $1,100,000
  • 5/16/18: Asking reduced to $1,050,000
  • 5/23/18: Asking reduced to $1,000,000
  • 6/08/18: Asking reduced to $950,000

As mentioned this is a lovely residence perfect for the buyer who wishes to own a contemporary residence with mountain views and a roof deck. However as astute buyers, sellers and investors we usually desire our real estate holdings at minimum keep up with inflation and even better exceed inflation coupled with various tax advantages (which are usually negated by maintenance and upkeep).

Thus for 235 Harrison Street the past decade has not been a wise investment. Historically buyers and sellers have come close to breaking even yet when factoring in inflation, which has been historically low over the past decade the ownership, has in fact lost money.

Most economists believe inflation will be making a comeback as we witness low unemployment, increased pricing for basic goods and services from gasoline to commodities coupled with potential trade disputes all coupled with rising mortgage interest rates and a possible recession.

What is interesting I have been watching similar designed row houses going up on Harrison Street south of First Avenue; units with a more pronounced impact from Colorado Boulevard and south of 1st Avenue. Will be interesting to see how the market reacts to those units. Granted new construction does have a premium.

Concerning 235 Harrison as a broker, unless one can get a better price on the purchase consider renting or if making an offer present the information from this blog. Good luck out there.

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